Most AI Numbers Are Unverifiable

AI output looks specific. Confident. Well-structured. Twelve percentages. Eight claims. Three named benchmarks.

Two of the numbers don't exist.

Not wrong. Fabricated. The model didn't look them up. It made them up. As far as we can tell from behavior, there's no reliable internal distinction between "I know this" and "I made this up."

The natural assumption is that better prompts are the answer. Three prompt architectures, three model families, multiple experiments. Prompts control how MUCH the model fabricates. None of the tested architectures controlled WHETHER it fabricates.

Take any analytical topic. Ask three different AI models to write about it. Count the numbers. Now run the same model, same prompt, same topic three more times. Count how many numbers appear in all versions.

77 to 100 percent of model-generated numbers changed between runs. On two generators, none survived. On the third, roughly a quarter did, mostly round numbers reused across different claims. The model isn't recalling facts. It's generating plausible-looking results.

They're temporally unstable. In one controlled comparison, nearly half the model-generated numbers coincidentally matched real sources. The problem isn't that they're all wrong. It's that from the output alone, you can't tell which are real.

So you add constraints. Require evidence. Demand sourcing. Specify epistemic standards. Three levels tested. BASIC: "analyze this topic." STANDARD: structural constraints requiring shaped, specific output. PROTOCOL: the full system built over 50 experiments, every claim constrained for honesty, evidence, and falsifiability.

BASIC: 85.8 percent fabrication. STANDARD, with structural constraints: 78.4. Slightly better. PROTOCOL, with full epistemic constraints demanding evidence and sourcing: 90.7. Worse than unconstrained. On xAI, structural constraints helped modestly. Epistemic constraints pushed fabrication up. Template slots demanding specificity got filled with fabrication.

On Gemini Flash, the direction reversed. Constraints increased fabrication instead of reducing it. On one topic, the unconstrained version produced zero numbers at all. Constraints forced the model to generate claims it wouldn't have made unprompted. All were fabricated. The condition gradient is generator-specific. The aggregate rate is robust: majority fabrication regardless of constraints or generator.

What prompts DID change was volume. PROTOCOL produced roughly a third the numerical claims of STANDARD. The constraints made the model claim less, not claim better. Net fabricated numbers per document went down. Accuracy did not improve. The model generated fewer claims total. A system that demands honesty produces fewer lies. Each one is more elaborate. The rate is structural. The volume is prompt-controllable.

The mechanism: demanding specificity narrows what the model can produce. It needs things that look like real numbers, real benchmarks. If it has that knowledge, it retrieves it. If it doesn't, it generates something that looks right. As far as we can tell from behavior, the model doesn't know the difference. Neither do you.

Other AI models rate the constrained output as higher quality 75 percent of the time. That rating is LLM-judged. A human domain expert agreed on 0 of 5 for holistic quality. The evaluators reward the performance of specificity, not its truth. How much maps to actual academic research? BASIC: 33 percent grounded. STANDARD: 6.7 percent. Five times less grounded. Five times more precise-sounding.

Then real data gets added to the prompt. Same models. Same topics. Same prompts. But this time, actual source material in context.

BASIC went from 85.8 percent temporal instability to 1.7 percent unsourced. STANDARD from 78.4 to 2.6. PROTOCOL from 90.7 to 3.4.

Source material moved the needle 46 percentage points. Prompt architecture moved it 6. The ordering is clear: source material is the dominant variable. The coupling that survived 30 experiments broke the moment the model had something real to build from. It was never about how models generate. It was about generating without anything real to ground against.

Months went into building PROTOCOL. The entire constraint architecture was solving the wrong problem.

Presence alone isn't enough. The model needs explicit instruction, not just data nearby. Monitoring says "flag unsourced numbers." Prohibition says "use only numbers from the source." Prohibition was five times better. 1.6 percent versus 7.7. And it cost nothing. The model compensated by extracting more and writing more, not less.

Three steps. Put real data in the prompt. Add one line: "Use only numbers from the source material above. If the source doesn't contain a relevant number, make the analytical point without inventing numbers." After the output, match the numbers against the source.

This isn't a prompt trick. It's a workflow change. The variable that matters most isn't how you ask. It's whether you provide something real to work from.

One thing source grounding does NOT change: how the output reads. In a blinded comparison, a domain expert rated source-present and source-absent output as equivalent. The fabricated version was rated more trustworthy in some cases. It cited more sources, used more specific numbers, and asserted with more confidence. The sourced version acknowledged limitations and had fewer citations. It only cited what was actually provided. The trust signals are inverted: the less reliable output has more of the markers humans use to assess authority. Source grounding doesn't make the output LOOK better. It makes the output CHECKABLE. The third step is where the value lives. Match the numbers against the source. Without that step, the fabricated version wins on perceived authority.

A direct verification check tested the fabrication rate from a different angle. Twenty-three claims citing named sources were checked against the cited sources' actual publications. The sources were McKinsey, BCG, Gallup, Gartner, and the Standish Group. Two of twenty-three verified correct. Both are among the most widely-cited statistics in their domains. Gartner's $15 million data quality cost. The Standish Group's 29 percent project success rate. Essentially common knowledge. The other twenty-one were assembled: real components, fabricated binding.

The model doesn't just generate unstable numbers. It fabricates the source attribution through five distinct mechanisms. It takes a real number from a real source and attaches it to a different claim. McKinsey's "45%" is about cumulative profit impact over a decade. The model wrote "45% of firms experienced disruptions lasting more than one month." It performs a correct calculation on real data and presents the result as a direct finding. Gallup: 45% vs 39% stress is a 15% relative increase. The model presented that as "Gallup reports 15% higher burnout." It generates domain-appropriate components and combines them. "BCG analysis of 1,500 firms" when BCG studied 150. It attaches a real statistic to the wrong source. "85% of analytics projects fail" is Gartner, not McKinsey. It applies real data to a broader scope than the original. The Standish CHAOS report covers all IT projects. The model presented it as specifically about migrations.

Each component is plausible. Each passes a fact-check that only verifies individual parts. The fabrication is in the binding: this source says this number about this topic.

Numbers that don't change across regenerations aren't necessarily right. The same "70%" shows up in three versions attached to three unrelated claims: revenue concentration, stall rates, headcount allocation. Not the same assertion recurring. Just a common number in business contexts. The regeneration test catches more than chance would. But verification against the source catches what the test can't.

Vocabulary and causal framing stay at baseline across regenerations. The tools solve one layer, the most measurable, most verifiable. The layers above it are yours.

But source grounding itself reaches further than its measurement. On reasoning tasks with known ground truth, source-present output found the correct answer 75 percent of the time versus 38 percent without source. The tasks were medical diagnosis, financial forensics, architecture decisions, legal review, and root cause analysis. Fewer wrong conclusions. More appropriate confidence. Source-absent output was overconfident. It made strong claims without backing. Three of five tasks showed source-present dramatically outperforming: financial analysis, architecture decisions, root cause analysis. One was moderately better: legal review. One was tied: medical diagnosis. Source material doesn't just stabilize numbers. It improves correctness on reasoning tasks with verifiable answers. The claims are checkable. They are also more likely correct.